What is Fixed-Income Securities and Interest Rate Risk — Macaulay & Modified Duration?
Mathematical Foundation
Laws & Principles
- High Duration = High Interest Rate Risk: A bond with Macaulay Duration of 10 years loses approximately 10% of market value if the Fed raises rates by 1% (100 bps). This is why long-maturity, low-coupon bonds (like 30-year Treasuries) are the most volatile fixed-income instruments — their duration approaches their full maturity.
- Coupons Shorten Duration Below Maturity: A 10-year bond paying a 10% coupon has a Macaulay Duration of roughly 6–7 years, not 10 — because early coupon payments return significant capital well before maturity. A zero-coupon bond's duration always equals its maturity exactly, since there are no interim cash flows to shorten the average.
- Duration Immunization (Liability-Driven Investing): A pension fund with a liability due in exactly 7.5 years can hold a bond portfolio with Macaulay Duration = 7.5 years. Even if rates change dramatically, the price loss on the bond exactly offsets the reinvestment benefit (and vice versa), guaranteeing the liability can be funded at maturity. This is 'duration matching' — fundamental to LDI strategy.
- Discount vs. Premium Pricing: When YTM > Coupon Rate, the bond trades below par (discount) — buyers demand a lower price so their total return equals the market yield. When YTM < Coupon Rate, the bond trades above par (premium). Duration is slightly shorter for premium bonds (more cash flow weight in near-term coupons) and slightly longer for discount bonds.
Step-by-Step Example Walkthrough
" Portfolio manager evaluates a 5-year, $1,000 corporate bond paying 5% annual coupon semi-annually. Current market YTM = 6%. "
- Setup: N = 10 periods, periodic yield y = 3%, periodic coupon C = $25.
- Period 1–9: PV_i = $25 / (1.03)^i. Sum of coupon PVs ≈ $213.47.
- Period 10: CF = $1,025. PV_10 = $1,025 / (1.03)^10 ≈ $762.26.
- Bond Price = $213.47 + $762.26 ≈ $957.35 — discount because YTM 6% > Coupon 5%.
- Time-weight each PV: Σ(t × PV_i) where t = i/2. Sum ≈ $4,260.
- Macaulay Duration = $4,260 / $957.35 ≈ 4.45 years. Modified Duration ≈ 4.32.