What is Bond Duration: Macaulay, Modified, DV01 & Convexity?
Mathematical Foundation
Laws & Principles
- Price-yield relationship is inverse and non-linear (convexity): When yields rise, bond prices fall; when yields fall, bond prices rise. Modified Duration gives the LINEAR approximation of this relationship. However, the actual price-yield curve is convex (curves upward). For large yield changes, the convexity adjustment improves accuracy: ΔP/P ≈ −D_Mod × Δy + (1/2) × Convexity × (Δy)². Convexity is always positive for standard bonds, meaning bonds gain more when yields fall than they lose when yields rise by the same amount (favorable asymmetry). Zero-coupon bonds have the highest convexity for a given duration.
- Duration rules: (1) Zero-coupon bond: Duration = Maturity exactly. (2) Coupon bond: Duration < Maturity (coupons received before maturity pull duration shorter). (3) Perpetual bond (consol): Duration = (1+y)/y for annual compounding. At 5% yield, perpetual duration = 21 years. (4) Higher coupon rate → shorter duration (earlier cash flows weighted more). (5) Higher yield → shorter duration (cash flows discounted more, reducing relative weight of distant flows). (6) Longer maturity → longer duration (but at a decreasing rate for coupon bonds).
- Portfolio duration: The duration of a bond portfolio equals the weighted-average duration of each bond, weighted by market value. A $5M bond at D_Mod=3 and $5M bond at D_Mod=7 gives portfolio duration = (0.5×3) + (0.5×7) = 5.0 years. This allows risk managers to target a specific portfolio duration by adjusting holdings. Treasury bond futures are commonly used to adjust portfolio duration without buying or selling the underlying bonds (duration overlay strategy).
- Duration does not capture credit spread risk, liquidity risk, or embedded option risk: Modified Duration assumes yield changes are parallel shifts of the risk-free rate. It does not capture: (1) Widening credit spreads (an investment-grade bond can lose 5% even if risk-free rates fall, if its credit spread widens by 50 bps). (2) Callable bond negative convexity (above the call price, the yield-price curve flattens or inverts due to call option). (3) Mortgage-backed prepayment optionality. For option-embedded bonds, use effective duration (option-adjusted) instead of modified duration.
Step-by-Step Example Walkthrough
" A 10-year Treasury bond: face value $1,000, 4% annual coupon (paid semi-annually), current YTM = 5%, trading at approximately $922.78. "
- Semi-annual coupon: $1,000 × 4% / 2 = $20 every 6 months (20 periods)
- Semi-annual yield: 5% / 2 = 2.5% per period
- Macaulay Duration (by weighted PV calculation): ≈ 16.32 semi-annual periods = 8.16 years
- Modified Duration: D_Mod = 8.16 / (1 + 0.025) = 7.96 years
- Price impact of 1% yield rise: ΔP/P ≈ −7.96% × 1% = −7.96% of $922.78 = −$73.45
- DV01: 7.96 × $922.78 × 0.0001 = $0.735 per $1,000 face (or $73.50 per $100,000 face)